Will a War Start in Autumn?

Newspaper Rezonansi (Tbilisi)

Will a War Start in Autumn?

Tamta Karchava

August 27, 2007

When the Russian President posed for reporters bared to the waist, demonstrating his physique to the whole world with no false modesty, a thought began to come into people’s heads in Georgia: are the Russian special services and their agents preparing another military operation in Georgia for the Autumn?

If one were to suggest parallels, one could say that the situation is just as tense is it was in the Fall of 1991. Everybody surely remembers what led to that tension: in addition to Russian hostility (there were periods when they sent us at minimum one helicopter a week), the Abkhazian separatists were holding training exercises, and the Georgian authorities were promising to return those territories before the elections.

Since tension is increasing in the North Caucasus and Russia once more finds aggression against Georgia fashionable, and since our government is not noted for its moderate temperament, the probability of war continues to increase. All the more so if certain individuals would like to change the dates of elections, since of course elections can’t take place during an emergency situation. All other things aside, if one takes a close look at our parliamentary majority, one will notice former “Mkhedrioni” members, on whose conscience lays many of the tragedies that took place in Abkhazia and Mingrelia. True, they’ve changed with time: they carry ballpoint pens now instead of automatic rifles, and they discuss philosophical ideas. But since they’re currently the leadership’s primary advisors on military issues, they’ve become all the more hazardous.

Georgia is facing the danger of a renewal of military action. According to experts, this danger is real, and it comes from the northern neighbor. Experts think that the fact that the Kremlin is continuing active maneuvers in the North Caucasus indicates the non-constructive nature of its position. Official Moscow does not conceal its antagonism towards Georgia. One indication of that is the dropping of the seven-hundred point bomb in the Georgian-Ossetian conflict zone, 60 kilometers from Tbilisi. And several days after this incident, Georgia’s border was again violated from the Russian side in the direction of Upper Abkhazia.

According to Georgian experts, if Russia unleashes military aggression against Georgia, the situation in Dagestan will become complicated. The situation in Chechnya is already complicated. Of all the Muslim regions of the North Caucasus only North Ossetia answers to Moscow, and Russia’s position in all the other regions is weak. Meanwhile, the Kremlin is accusing Georgia of bombing its own territory, and declares that Georgia is preparing to renew military action in the conflict zones.

Russia has announced the mobilization of its armed forces along Georgia’s state borders. What is more, hired militants have appeared in the conflict zone to aid the Russian border troops. And then the separatists’ ministry of defense is “demonstrating its strength” by carrying out the latest operational-tactical training exercises in Kodori Gorge. The exercises are being conducted on two training grounds – in Nagvalou and Tsebelde. The latter is located in the lower part of Kodori Gorge. The separatists maintain that up to six thousand troops are participating in these exercises, which are taking place only several kilometers from the “Patriot” youth camp and from the actual border. De-facto Abkhazian president Sergei Bagapsh came to observe the exercises, and de-facto minister of foreign affairs Sergei Shamba stated that the Georgian are observing the exercises in Tsebelde from the air. The so-called government of Abkhazia is warning Georgia that such provocative acts call for an adequate reaction from Sukhumi.

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili stated that Georgia is not preparing for war, and added that striving for peace should not be unilateral.

How will things develop? Is there a danger of resumption of military confrontation? Did Russia violate the ceasefire agreement?

If one looks at recent Georgian history, how Russia signed agreements and then violated them is there in black and white. Over the last two centuries Rusia has signed some seventy agreements, about 80% of which she has not fulfilled. According to Georgian experts, this kind of behavior by Russia should be taken as a truism: Moscow signs agreements but does not honor them.

Georgian experts link the events happening now in the Georgian conflict regions with the pre-election campaign. Certain Russian political scientists, who know their own situation better than anyone, reached the conclusion that Russia needs a show of force in the conflict zones for the election campaign. Political scientist Ramaz Sakvarelidze points out that Russia is no stranger to this kind of thing:

“This is not the first case of conducting a pre-electoral campaign by such means – it’s characteristic not just for the Russian reality. Neither Saakashvili nor his team is openly taking the path of anti-Russian rhetoric. From the behavior of the Georgian side one cannot yet say that they are satisfied with the development of events. But if an election campaign requires it, Georgia will take up Russia’s aggressive style and will counter belligerence with belligerence. If Russia needs to demonstrate its strength to the West, then it is not impossible that Russia will do everything it can to made Georgia smell of gunpowder. If anybody is interested in war, then it is Russia,” Sakvarelidze said in an interview in the newspaper Mteli kvira.

Paata Davitaya, an expert on Abkhazian issues, said that Russia is demonstrating its muscles. In his opinion, the events in the Tskhinvali region and Abkhazia are following the same plan.

“Bagapsh stated that he intends to restore Abkhazia’s territorial integrity. In answer to the American statement on control over the Poki tunnel, the Russians began military exercises in Vladikavkaz. I saw the footage on Russian television, and would say that the Abkhaz are very seriously prepared for war in mountain conditions. This is the situation: if Georgia dares to do something, it will be hit from two sides simultaneously – from Sukhumi and from Tskhinvali. I am speaking about a simultaneous blow to Kodori and to Gori,” Davitaya said.

Davitaya also pointed out that despite the fact that renewal of conflict does not suit the Georgian leadership, they themselves often make provocative moves. In his opinion, events in the region may be linked with presidential and parliamentary elections.

“This is all PR. When our citizens were thrown out of Russia, a commission was formed in Parliament under the chairmanship of Nika Gvaramia, and we intended to file a case in Strasburg. Now I’m asking, where is this case? As far as I know, no case was filed in Strasburg. Why did we not take legal action? Where are the conclusions of that commission? All this is only PR,” said Davitaya.

Military security expert Irakli Sesiashvili: “It should not be excluded that specific military confrontations will take place on our territory. I can say directly that Russia will be the initiator, and certainly not the Georgian, Ossetian or Abkhaz sides. The exercises that are now taking place near Kodori are also a Russian initiative,”

“The situation in the North Caucasus is extremely tense, and only God knows how renewal of military action in Tskhinvali would effect that,” said military expert Kakha Katsitadze. In his opinion, the separatist regimes do not have the resources to start military action on their own. “They can advance several kilometers, but I don’t see the danger of renewal of full scale military confrontation,” he said.

“Of course, all of this is indirectly linked with the elections. If the region were to stay peaceful, then it would mean that the authorities have not fulfilled their promise to return the territory, meaning that they will not be able to mobilize the population for the elections. If there were no tension, naturally the authorities would not be able to create the image of an enemy and mobilize the population for support. Thus the things happening in the conflict region, perhaps, are playing into the hands of certain state structures for the electoral campaign. But in reality, the resumption of hostilities would not be in anyone’s interest,” said Katsitadze in an interview for Mteli kvira.