My Opinion: April 9th

As protesters fill the streets of Tbilisi, their discontent is clear. But the message that opposition politicians are trying to galvanize supporters with seems misdirected. Cries of "Misha tsadi!" (Misha Saakashvili, Go!) are meant to refresh recent calls of "Shevy tsadi!" (Eduard Shevarnadze, Go!) in the 2003 protests that led to the last President's resignation.

For more established democracies, calling for a President to resign because you disagree with some aspect of their policy seems far-fetched. The problem is that Georgia has never seen a peaceful turnover of government by 'fair' election, and so the model of democracy in Georgia is one in which, if you get enough people together to protest the guy you don't like, he will resign; ie. Shevarnadze in 2003. The other model is, unfortunately, civil war and exile and/or assassination of elected leaders; ie. Noe Jordania 1921, Zviad Gamsakhurdia, 1991 respectively.
So we're seeing an attempt to get enough people out in the street to call for Saakashvili's resignation.

Saakashvili, for his part, has hopefully learned one lesson from Nov. 7th, 2003, when he allowed masked thugs (ostensibly State employees) to wantonly beat and
hospitalize up to 600 protestors. A similar reaction now would play right into opposition politicians hands, at the expense of a few beaten heads. The emotional outrage at such a reaction would lead to civil disorder and either a major crackdown, or Saakashvili's resignation.

But, with all the international attention, Saakashvili is not likely to resort to this tactic again, as he said explicitly in an interview yesterday: “We hope that we won't be seeing violence like in London and Athens and that there is consensus that every protest should be peaceful. The main thing we expect is to show the world that Georgia is a democracy and not susceptible to any destabilisation..." (ie. harsh government reaction).

As much as the Georgian opposition needs to pick their battles, and their focus, Saakashvili has to learn how to legitimize presidency and his government by making up for his series of mistakes and authoritarian actions (such as the Girgvliani murder case, shutting down the opposition television station in Nov. 2007, accounting for his own mistakes in the August war with Russia, etc.). Concrete steps in these directions, which seem to be the real sources for public outrage, would enhance his credibility. But turning a blind eye towards protesters resignation demands, ludicrous as these demands may seem from his position of power, only enhances the perception of government complicity and fault with the ongoing cases just mentioned. In this situation, a non-reaction is better than a violent suppression ala November 2007, but doesn't increase the government's public credibility.

In interviews yesterday and today, (Interior Minister) Merabishvili stated: “There will be no direct confrontation between police and protesters,” in an interview on April 8 with the French news agency (reported here). In a separate, AFP, Merabishvili said the authorities would show “maximum tolerance” for the protesters.“It [the protest] cannot last forever. The participants also have their own limits,” he said. “If there is no threat to the lives of the citizens, our tactic will be to not intervene or impede members of the protest in expressing their will freely.”

But 'non-reaction,' which seems to be the message being conveyed by representatives of Saakashvili's governing team, will not make the government position stronger. I think the government has to learn how to engage with the public on the issues that matter to them through actions that symbolize a basic level of respect for society, and Saakashvili should at least intimate a healthy recognition that his power depends on public support. Once again, he is gambling. This time the gamble is that as long as he doesn't make any major blunders of over-reaction ala November 2007, the larger societal problems of 'occupation, economy, NATO membership,' etc. will temper protesters indignation.

I think its a big gamble, and unless he really pays attention to what Georgians care about, as a people, and not just what he, as president, has to think about as an international actor, these protests will only get bigger and bigger in the next couple of months.