9:30pm Saturday

So far, it seems like Russian retaliation for Georgian movements towards Tskhinvali have been focused on hitting tactical targets such as the Marneuli airforce base, the Vaziani army base, and artillery units. The Russian vibe, as far as I can tell from reading Russia Today, and my past experience with Georgia-Russia relations, is that they want to show Georgia that Russia is still in power of this region. They take offense that Georgia even dared to attack South Ossetia, which Russia maintains in order to keep the Caucasus instable.

Georgian shelling of Tskhinvali was a big mistake, in my opinion. What did that serve except to alienate the Ossetians, bring down the trigger happy Russian military... and what did the Georgians achieve? They didn't even manage to take the city, the territory, or anything. I find it hard to believe that they would go into this situation without a plan, but more and more it seems that way. Though, on the other hand, the timing with the start of the Olympics could not have been that accidental, because Georgia understands well that going up against Russia with no media attention is suicide. There is very little stopping Russia from blowing the whole place wide open. Only a concentrated western media focus keeps Russia, conscious of Gazprom contracts in Europe and WTO accession, in check.

For now, I feel safe in Tbilisi, but that could change tonight. Some are saying that it wouldn't be out of the question for Russian jets to place a few bombs around Tbilisi just to cause even more chaos. I don't anticipate that, but do anticipate the internet and mobile networks getting taken down. Also, electricity, water pollution, and transportation corridors could be taken out. Those seem like much more likely targets than civilian populations given the forces at play here. This is not a war between the Russian and Georgian people.

This is a war where Georgians are trying to take back part of their ancestral territory, disputed by local populations supported by Russia, and Russians defending the status quo, which favored their interest in keeping Georgia divided and therefore unable to join NATO.

More later.