Opinion: Richard Lax

My political analyst friend, formerly of European Commission Georgia, now in Vienna, has some interesting things to say:



The day of the Silovik

The war between Georgia and
Russia, no matter who threw the first stone, is a unique opportunity for the Russian
Siloviki to play politics their way. The Georgian government has given them the
ideal opportunity to:
1.) bolster themselves in their
new environment in the Medvedev administration;
2.) deliver a public defeat to
the Georgian government, that Russia tries to prevent from turning towards
NATO;
3.) returning humiliation to the
countries that recognised Kosovo, by prooving that this would only foment
instability elsewhere, this time for a “western” ally and…
4.) destroy military (and
possibly energy) infrastructure in Georgia in general.

A Georgian operation would be
extremely high risk. Rewards for the Georgian government would have been huge. It
would have showed that the government was capable of delivering on one of its
its promises:
1.) territorial integrity and
2.) economic recovery.
If successful the government
could have pointed to a historic milestone to their quest of restoring
Georgia’s territorial integrity and restore its dented domestic credibility.
South Ossetia is a political concoction that Russia maintains to wield
influence in Georgia and hence difficult to tackle for anyone. Neither the US
nor the EU have a clear strategy on the conflict and may have tacitly condoned
a swift and successful campaign.

Summer is traditionally time for
tension in Georgia, since weather conditions are favourable to combat, from the
lowlands up to the mountains. This summer would also be the last summer with
the strongly pro-Georgian Bush administration at the helm in the US. Further
the opening of the Olympic Games semed to offer a chance to operate outside of
public view. The move on South Ossetia can be interpreted as bolder version of
the operation in Kodori two years ago, which included the reclaiming of
territory by Georgian security services/military.

The outcome of the conflict will
have an impact on the political landscape in Russia and its impact will be felt
across the board. It will strengthen Russia’s hand in the South Caucasus and
the breakaway regions of Georgia, it may also have an impact on Russia’s
handling of its private enterprises and the handling of international companies
that operate inside Russia.

The Georgian government took a
gamble that will have consequences well beyond its borders and the region. The
grandstanding of Siloviki in Georgia and Russia will cost both sides dearly in
lives and will at the end of the day weaken the position of Georgia and those
who support her.